Egg prices are once again making headlines, with consumers paying significantly more for this breakfast staple. Factors like avian influenza, supply chain disruptions, and thefts are driving costs up, prompting businesses like Waffle House to place a surcharge on every egg it sells. The situation has raised concerns about long-term affordability and availability.
Let’s check Why egg prices are skyrocketing, how theft and supply issues play a role, and when consumers can expect relief.
Why Are Egg Prices Rising?
Egg prices are influenced by multiple factors, with the most significant being the ongoing highly pathogenic avian influenza (HPAI) outbreaks.
The virus has decimated poultry populations, reducing the number of egg-laying hens and tightening supply.
Avian Influenza and Its Impact on Supply
Jada Thompson, an associate professor and poultry economist with the University of Arkansas System Division of Agriculture, notes that egg production has been volatile in recent years. The U.S. egg-layer supply is currently down by approximately 3%, mirroring previous shortages in late 2022 and early 2023.
According to the Animal and Plant Health Inspection Service (APHIS), since February 2022, over 149 million birds have been affected by HPAI, significantly impacting commercial egg production. In January alone, 19.63 million birds were lost due to the virus, further straining the already limited supply.
Theft and Supply Chain Disruptions
Another factor exacerbating the crisis is theft. Recently, someone stole 100,000 eggs from a Pennsylvania company—a heist valued at approximately $40,000. Such incidents add to market instability, reducing available supply and driving up costs.
Consumer Hoarding and Seasonal Demand
Egg shortages often trigger panic buying. Thompson explains that consumers engage in “just-in-case buying”, further straining the market. Additionally, seasonal demand spikes—such as increased egg consumption during the holidays—intensify price fluctuations.
Retailers, anticipating these trends, adjust prices accordingly. Currently, the national average price for a dozen Grade A eggs stands at $4.15, with some locations, like Walmart in Fort Smith, reporting prices as high as $4.53 per dozen.
Egg Problems Driving Up Prices at Waffle House and Other Restaurants
Restaurants have been hit hard by egg price volatility. Waffle House is placing a surcharge on every egg it sells to offset soaring costs. The chain, known for its affordable breakfast offerings, faces rising expenses that threaten its profit margins.
Other restaurants are adopting similar measures:
- Diner chains have increased menu prices.
- Bakeries face higher costs for egg-based products like pastries and cakes.
- Fast-food chains are adjusting portion sizes to mitigate expenses.
With these rising costs, some businesses may pass the burden onto customers, while others may limit egg-based menu items.
Will Egg Prices Drop?
The big question remains: When will egg prices stabilize? The answer depends on multiple variables, including bird flu containment, seasonal trends, and economic factors.
Upcoming Trends and Price Predictions
Historically, egg prices follow a cyclical pattern. Experts suggest that prices could decline in mid-to-late 2025 due to:
- Recovering poultry populations – As new layers enter production, supply constraints will ease.
- Warmer temperatures reducing bird flu cases – Bird flu spreads more aggressively in colder months.
- Consumer demand normalizing – Panic buying will likely subside as supply improves.
However, if another major avian influenza outbreak occurs or supply chain disruptions persist, prices could remain elevated.
Visual Breakdown: Egg Price Trends Over Time
To better understand the impact of avian flu on egg prices, consider the following table showing recent year-over-year production losses:
| Year | Egg-Layer Losses Due to HPAI | National Average Egg Price (Per Dozen) |
|---|---|---|
| 2022 | 43 million | $4.25 |
| 2023 | 12 million | $3.50 |
| 2024 | 38 million | $4.15 |
| 2025 (YTD) | 13 million | TBD |
This data shows the correlation between avian influenza outbreaks and rising egg prices, providing insights into potential future trends.
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What Can Consumers Do?
While egg prices remain high, consumers can take proactive steps to minimize costs:
- Buy in bulk when prices dip.
- Look for local suppliers—farmers’ markets often offer competitive pricing.
- Consider egg substitutes for baking and cooking.
- Stay informed on industry trends to anticipate price changes.
The current egg crisis is a combination of supply chain issues, theft, disease, and demand fluctuations. While prices may decline later in 2025, short-term volatility is expected. Keeping an eye on market trends and adjusting purchasing habits accordingly can help consumers navigate this challenging period.
By understanding the factors behind egg price increases, businesses and consumers alike can make more informed decisions. As supply stabilizes and flu outbreaks subside, relief may be on the horizon—but until then, expect breakfast to cost a little more than usual.
